Returning to the UK from COP30 in Belém, I was struck by how quickly friends, family, and the media labelled the summit a failure. The story dominating headlines said COP hadn’t delivered because countries could not agree on a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. I had left Belém with mixed feelings, but these were shaped by something else entirely.
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world remains off track to meet the 1.5°C temperature goal. Save the Children’s analysis shows that 38 million children could be spared unprecedented exposure to heatwaves (as just one example of many climate-related hazards) if warming is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. COP30 therefore needed to provide clear direction on closing the ambition gap. For the first time, COP recognised the need to minimise both how far and for how long global temperature could overshoot 1.5°C (more on why it matters in our next blog). However, a firm call to action was missing. Instead, the outcome offered a symbolic but procedurally vague Belém Mission to 1.5°C, intended to foster enhanced ambition and international cooperation, but lacking both teeth and enforcement mechanisms.
As a champion of keeping the 1.5°C temperature goal within reach, the UK should work with the COP Presidencies to ensure the mission drives meaningful and substantive action. This must be accompanied by an ambitious, high-quality pledge on international climate finance that demonstrates the UK is responding to the Global South’s call for affordable funding as a critical enabler of ambitious climate action.
More talk shops without follow-throughs?
Dialogues, missions, roadmaps, platforms are increasingly emerging as the key outcomes of COPs. These initiatives can be invaluable, especially for issues that have received little or no attention in the UNFCCC. But without a mandate to act on their recommendations, they risk becoming little more than talk shops.
The expert dialogue on children and climate change illustrates this problem. At COP28, the Global Stocktake decision mandated an expert dialogue on children and climate change to discuss the disproportionate impacts of climate change on children and relevant policy solutions. The decision represented a landmark and much-needed development under the UNFCCC process, addressing children as a distinct cohort for the first time in its history. Held in 2024 and attended by over 200 participants, the expert dialogue resulted in solid recommendations. Since then, however, there has been no meaningful response to these recommendations in subsequent COP decisions.
It's not because governments or world leaders are indifferent to children; rather, they tend to frame children’s distinct vulnerabilities and needs as concerns for the future, even though children are being impacted by the climate crisis now. The language in the final decision - confirming the determination to protect the climate system for present and future generations- reinforces this mindset. While welcome, such recognition does little to drive concrete action to protect and empower children who are already on the frontlines of the climate crisis.
The Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3 trillion is another case in point. After a year of work, more than 200 submissions from government and non-government stakeholders, and engagement from finance ministers across high- and lower-income countries, the roadmap was ultimately only “taken note of” in the final COP decision, a weak formulation in the UNFCCC parlance that creates no expectation of next steps. It is now up to governments to take forward the roadmap recommendations but mechanism to ensure accountability is missing.
Continuing to rely on dialogues, platforms, and roadmaps, without translating recommendations into actionable commitments or obligations, undermines the credibility of the UNFCCC. It is against this backdrop that the last-minute surge in calls during the second week of COP30 for a ‘roadmap’ to transition away from fossil fuels should also be critically examined.
COP still matterS
Despite their challenges, COPs continue to be the only global climate platform where all countries, rich and poor (measured in terms of per capita income), have a voice and come together to discus and commit on one of the most critical issues of our time. They are also delivering, albeit at a much slower pace than needed. Without the Paris Agreement, the world would likely be on track for much higher warming. The full implementation of countries’ latest emissions reduction plans, also called their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), has the potential to bend the emissions curve. It hints at what’s possible when COPs pair strong political signals with operational mandates that ensure adequate and appropriate finance, facilitate technology transfer, and embed equity and climate justice in decision-making.
Children, once absent from COP decisions, are also gaining recognition. More than 150 children had the chance to make their voices and demands heard at COP30. The child-sensitivity of countries’ NDCs has improved over time. Through its programming, evidence, advocacy, and support to child campaigners, Save the Children is helping drive this shift, ensuring children’s rights and voices increasingly shape how governments think about climate ambition and resilience. Yet a collective, binding commitment from governments to place children at the centre of their climate decision-making remains absent. Given that children make up one-third of the world’s population and experience distinct and heightened vulnerabilities from the climate crisis, you’d think such a commitment would be obvious after 30 COPs. Will COP31 finally change that trend?
If you have any questions, please contact Shruti Agarwal at [email protected]
