Recently, the UK announced that it will prioritise aid for fragile and conflict-affected states, a welcome move at a time when conflicts are rapidly escalating in a warming world. The challenge now is ensuring that this support is delivered in ways that genuinely strengthen resilience, helping these countries navigate the multiple, overlapping crises they face.
CLIMATE CHANGE DISPROPORTIONATELY IMPACTS FRAGILE AND CONFLICT AFFECTED STATES
The triple planetary crisis humanity faces today - climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss - are more pronounced in fragile, and conflict affected states (FCAS). IMF data (2022) suggests that nearly a billion people live in countries classified as fragile and conflict affected states. This figure has nearly doubled in the past 20 years and is expected to rise substantially by 2030 especially with continued regional wars, unreported local conflict and current tensions in the middle east regions. Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative index says- 16 of the top 25 countries most vulnerable to climate-related impacts are fragile and conflict affected. 473 million children are growing up in conflict zones, with devastating consequences for their lives and futures, according to Save the Children.
While we understand how conflict and fragility drive up people’s vulnerabilities to climate change, the opposite is also becoming increasingly true where climate change impacts are triggering unrest and conflict, especially at regional and local levels – primarily due to resource constraints and its fair distribution. There is an urgent need for climate finance to flow to FCAS to address the impacts of climate change and support adaptation. However, access to climate adaptation finance in FCAS remains a significant challenge; analysis by Mercy Corps highlights that less than 1% adaptation finance reached these countries in 2022, when adaptation funding is already under met. UNEP’s adaptation gap report (2024) identified fragility as a significant barrier to accessing climate adaptation finance, often exacerbated by poor institutional capacity, lack of data, and inadequate local governance structures.
AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN FCAS
In this context, it’s clear WHY climate finance needs to flow to FCAS, but we are yet to understand fully HOW we deliver climate change adaptation and resilience objectives in countries experiencing conflict or slow recovery from humanitarian crisis with fragile governing system; as well as HOW we ensure investments towards community adaptation address risks that are long-term, shifting, and often less visible during periods of ongoing crisis?
The most likely answer is an integrated approach, that combines climate action, humanitarian efforts and peace building initiatives to layer thematic interventions on top of each other to deliver climate resilience, manage crisis, reinstate essential services, strengthen institutions, and build social cohesion. In other words, building resilience for People, Environment and Economy across what can be called, the “Resilience Nexus”, interlinking climate change adaptation to humanitarian, development and peace.
To develop a comprehensive technical framework, for the purpose of climate adaptation programming in FCAS, Save the Children studied contemporary approaches and frameworks, including Adelphi and the United Nations System Staff College (UNSSC) Climate, Peace, and Security Agenda; CGIAR FOCUS Climate Security approach, that provides clear and best practice solutions promoting stability in fragile and conflict-affected regions and the World Bank’s framework for delivering climate action in settings affected by fragility, conflict and violence.
Conflict sensitive climate change adaptation technical framework proposes to adopt a combination of locally led, systems strengthening and collaborative approach. While, we don’t have enough evidence on effectiveness of Locally Led Adaptation FCAS, or what aspects of it needs to be championed in which context, it was agreed to keep it as a one of the key pillars as it aligns with adaptive peacebuilding approaches (UNDP, 2022), which focus on strengthening social structures, local governance and resource management, rather than imposing external solutions. A case studied by IIED (2025) in Mali, suggests, by leveraging community (including children and youth) knowledge, traditional governance systems and local networks, LLA can help build long-term resilience to both climate shocks and conflict risks. LLA centred interventions in the FCAS will help empower local institutions, collective action and community-based decision making, ensuring that adaptation efforts reflect the needs and knowledge of those most affected.
The technical framework was developed by a joint team from Save the Children UK and Save the Children Italy - Daljeet Kaur, Stephen Mutiso, Carlotta Bellini.
KEY PILLARS OF AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK
This represents early thinking on how climate action can be delivered in the FCAS; it needs to be tested in practice and refined based on implementation insights and evidence. At this early thinking stage, the framework adopts three key pillars: 1) Risk Management; 2) Locally Led Adaptation; 3) Climate Resilient Development.
The framework suggests, 3 key activities under each pillar contributing to 4 impact areas namely – Inclusive governance; Community Resilience; Social Cohesion and Environmental Restoration. The framework is set within the Climate Action-Development-Peace-Humanitarian nexus and identifies Flexible programming, Gender Equality, Disability and Social Inclusion, child centred, as enablers to deliver the intended impact. Consolidating finance meant for development, climate action and peace, would have to be brought together to deliver an integrated solution, leveraging social, economic and environmental co-benefits.
Key activities under Risk Management and Locally Led Adaptation pillars are proposed to align interventions with local peacebuilding efforts to ensure they promote stability while addressing climate risks. Climate finance can help local actors, including local communities and children, to build capabilities to identify risks, contribute towards building scenarios and act consequently through anticipatory action. Key activities under the Climate Resilient Development and Locally Led Adaptation pillars proposes to prioritise the needs and capacities of vulnerable regions and groups, especially children and young people and promote cross-sectoral collaboration among development, disaster risk management, humanitarian, and peacebuilding actors to align efforts in addressing vulnerabilities. The activities recognise the importance of working with the existing humanitarian network, civil society, and community-based organisations to ensure green recovery through community led reconstruction.
Risk Management
- Risk mapping (including likely risks from project interventions), conflict analysis and scenario building.
- Deliver Anticipatory Action (AA) Models, such as child centred Shock Responsive Social Protection (SRSP).
- Child-centred early warning systems and weather and climate information services for climate and conflict-induced crisis and forced displacement.
Locally Led Adaptation
- Community-led climate resilient livelihood planning for food and water security.
- Strengthen local capabilities and skills, including of children and youth, that help promote targeted, inclusive, and locally anchored climate change adaptation interventions, tailored to children’s specific needs.
- Locally Led Climate Action for food and water security that helps build peace, social and economic stability.
Climate Resilient Development
- Ecosystem protection and restoration.
- Community reconstruction for food and water security, promoting and facilitating the agency of children and the youth where possible.
- Collaborate across sectors and local networks (e.g. humanitarian) along with children, youth and women on climate resilient planning and their delivery.
This framework will be put to test in our upcoming projects in FCAS and further refined to help increase international NGOs, like Save the Children’s capacity to respond to intertwined challenges and crises ranging from climate change and food insecurity to fragility and crisis recovery. The framework will help us seek opportunities for delivering climate actions that are aligned with development, peacebuilding efforts promoting local stability while addressing climate risks. It will further support Save the Children’s efforts in channeling critical climate finance to underserved conflict affected countries and strengthen capacities of local actors through evidence-based learning in delivering climate action.
