Updated as of Friday 2 October 2026. Next forecast update expected Thursday 8 October 2026.
Children around the world are facing more climate extremes – including heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods and cyclones – than people born in the 1960s.
Now, a major El Niño is predicted at the same time as record-breaking heatwaves, threatening the safety and wellbeing of millions of children in 2026-27 and beyond.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that changes weather across the world, and this year's event is forecast to be very strong. For children in places already facing hunger, conflict and climate shocks, that means a higher risk of missed meals, disease and lost schooling.
The encouraging part? El Niño is one of the few disasters we can see coming, and acting early can protect children before the worst hits. In many regions, forecasts and early warning triggers have already been activated. The window for action is now.
What does El Niño mean?
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that happens every few years when part of the Pacific Ocean warms up more than usual. This causes changing weather patterns across the world − from fierce droughts, wildfires and heatwaves in some parts of the world, to deadly flooding and tropical storms in others.
Scientists haven't shown that climate change makes El Niño itself stronger. But a warmer world can still make its impacts more extreme, especially in low-income countries.
El Niño was declared in June and is forecast to intensify through late 2026 and early 2027. This El Niño could be one of the strongest and most disruptive on record as it comes on top of record-breaking heat, rising food costs and severe humanitarian funding cuts.
Is 2026 an El Niño year?
Yes. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) formally declared El Niño conditions on Thursday 11 June 2026.
NOAA's update on Thursday 10 September 2026 gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event this autumn and winter, and a 75% chance of a historic one between October and December that would exceed any El Niño since 1950.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says there is a nearly 100% chance El Niño lasts until February 2027, the first time its update has been so unequivocal (WMO, Thursday 3 September 2026).
The Met Office says sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific have now surpassed levels recorded in any previous event. Read the Met Office update.
How does El Niño affect children?
Children often feel its effects first and hardest. Drought and floods can wipe out harvests, push up food prices, cut access to clean water and spread disease. Families under pressure may have to take children out of school, send them to work or consider early marriage. Children already living with conflict, poverty or disability are hit hardest.
Take Zambia. New data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), the global hunger monitor, projects about 1.2 million people facing acute food insecurity between October 2026 and March 2027. That is up 72% from now, as El Niño drought and higher fuel and fertiliser prices squeeze families. Chilobe Kambikambi, our Country Director in Zambia, says: "Children are often the first to suffer when food becomes scarce."
Chilobe Kambikambi, our Country Director in Zambia, says:
Children are often the first to suffer when food becomes scarce, with consequences that can last a lifetime. No child should have to endure the pain of hunger, yet the latest projections show that more families across Zambia could soon struggle to put food on the table.
What is Save the Children doing about El Niño?
Because El Niño is forecast months ahead, we can act before disaster hits. This is called anticipatory action: using forecasts and local knowledge to protect children before a crisis peaks. That can mean alerting communities, giving families cash, keeping children learning, and preparing safe water and shelters. The evidence is strong. A 2025 report by FAO, OCHA and WFP found that every US$1 invested in anticipatory action yields up to US$7 in avoided losses and added benefits.
HOW ANTICIPATORY ACTION WORKS
Save the Children has more than 100 years of experience responding to crises, including expertise in building resilient communities, disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness, as well as context analysis, foresight and data analytics. We work with communities before, during and after disaster, including working with children to create solutions to the challenges they are facing.
Anticipatory Action works
Anticipatory action saves lives and preserves livelihoods, reduces costs of traditional response and protects development gains as well as adaptation investments.
In 2025, we and our partners helped more than 432,600 people, including more than 118,900 children, through anticipatory action in eight countries. That included safe evacuations before landslides in Bangladesh, cash and farming support before drought in Ethiopia, and flood-ready schools in Niger. Now we're working with governments, communities and local partners in 25 countries across Africa, Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
Save the Children already has anticipatory action plans in countries across Central America, East and Southern Africa, and Asia Pacific. This includes:
Protecting children from harm through evacuations or reinforcing buildings
Keeping services running, like healthcare, water and schools
Providing cash or food to families
Working with communities to keep children safe.
Beaullar, age 12, is part of the Disaster Risk Reduction club supported by Save the Children and partners in Zimbabwe. At the club, children map hazards, like heavy rainfall and floods, affecting their schools and come up with ways to mitigate them. Cynthia Chimbunde/ Save the Children
Will El Niño affect the UK?
Here, the effect is indirect and not guaranteed.
The Met Office says it raises the chance of wetter, stormier conditions across north-west Europe, including the UK, in autumn and early winter, with a higher risk of cold snaps later. It's one influence among many, so it can't tell us how much snow to expect. The much bigger impact is overseas, where families have far fewer resources to cope.
What can you do?
You don't need to be a meteorologist to help. Stay informed, because we'll update this page as forecasts change. Share what you've learned so more people understand what's at stake. And if you can, become a monthly giver. Regular gifts mean we can release funds the moment forecasts signal a crisis. You can also explore our climate crisis work and the wider global issues hub.
El Niño can't be stopped, but its impact on children can be reduced. With early action and your support, children can be ready when it arrives.
