From earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria to conflict in Sudan to floods in Bangladesh, 2023 has been another devastating and disruptive year for children’s education around the world.
Conflict, climate change, food crises, forced displacement and the aftermath of COVID-19 have continued to strain education systems, denying millions of children the opportunity to learn and thrive.
It is against that backdrop that today Save the Children have published our Risks to Education Index 2023.
For the third consecutive year, we ranked 182 countries by the vulnerability of their school system to hazards that threaten children’s right to learn and against levels of preparedness to those hazards. This enables us to make a holistic view of the risks to education and where national education systems require increased resources from national governments and international actors to mitigate existing, and prevent future, crises.
What does the Risks to Education Index 2023 tell us?
Our new analysis shows that Somalia and Afghanistan remain at extreme risk of ongoing and future crises disrupting education. They are closely followed by a further 25 countries ranked at high risk, with Sudan, Yemen, Mali and Syria amongst the highest countries in the index.
The good news is that the number of countries ranked at ‘extreme’ and ‘high’ risk has reduced since 2022, largely due to the reduced risk of school closures due to the COVID-19 pandemic and improvements in vaccine coverage.
However, vulnerability to hazards and deficiencies in preparedness remain persistently high in the most at-risk countries. Seven countries have now featured in the top 10 most at-risk countries in every iteration of the Index: Somalia, Afghanistan, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Mali and Nigeria. Increased resources from national and international actors are urgently required to mitigate existing and future crises across these countries.
What’s more, the data used in the Index is from before the recent escalation of conflict in Sudan and Gaza, which has left millions more children out of school. It’s therefore likely that with forthcoming data applied, both Sudan and the Occupied Palestinian territory could also be ranked at ‘extreme risk’.
The most-at–risk countries face a compounding set of factors
The most-at risk countries already have low rates of student enrolment and learning outcomes, but in crises the education systems are even harder hit. Many countries are also suffering from food insecurity which has a big impact on children’s wellbeing and ability to learn. Of the 10 most at-risk countries with available Acute Food Insecurity data, all show high levels of food insecurity.
The climate crisis is further threatening children’s right to learn, as extreme weather events damage or destroy schools, and an increasing number of children will likely have to flee their homes, leaving behind their education.
As world leaders begin convening this week at COP28, we urge member states to commit to a bold agenda to integrate education and climate strategies and policies including Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).
Somalia: a perfect storm of conflict, climate change and hunger
Of the countries assessed, Somalia was found to have the highest level of risk, up from third place in 2022.
Amidst its worst drought in four years, the education of millions of children in Somalia is at extreme risk of collapse. This is on top of already having one of the world’s highest rates of out-of-school children, with an estimated 55% of children of primary school age currently missing out on education.
Many more children are now at risk of dropping out of school as the impacts of drought, severe food shortages and other negative coping mechanisms force families to withdraw their children from school in order to meet their basic needs.
How to respond to the risks these education systems are facing?
Building resilient education systems in all countries – through investment in crisis-sensitive planning, preparedness and anticipatory action - is critical, and even more so in crisis-prone and low-income countries.
In the face of growing risks, every government needs to develop and implement an integrated preparedness plan to secure children’s learning and wellbeing in future crises.
Donors and international development partners also need to step up and urgently fill the education financing gap and enable anticipatory action.
We call upon donors to invest more in crisis-sensitive education planning and education in emergencies – including by providing new and additional funds to Education Cannot Wait which faces a funding gap of approximately $640 million to deliver its ambitious strategic plan and reach 20 million crisis-impacted children.
With the likelihood that threats will continue to increase in the future, millions of children’s learning and wellbeing is under threat. But it doesn’t have to be this way. 2024 could be the turning point to secure quality, safe and inclusive education for all.
This blog was written by Oliver Mawhinney – Senior Education Adviser – and Fareha Islam – Research Adviser.
