As the headlines about the coronavirus continue to dominate, the UK and the rest of the international community are rightly focusing their efforts on responding to the pandemic.
From the UN Secretary General’s global ceasefire call to the G20’s agreement to implement a debt freeze, global coordination is starting to take shape – albeit slowly. These efforts aimed at helping developing nations and countries caught up in conflict are important steps in the right direction.
But as world leaders tighten their COVID-19 blinkers, they risk losing sight of other significant developments unfolding across the globe. When global leaders finally shift their gaze back on the wider horizon, what will the world look like for children?
In recent weeks, we have seen separate developments that demand the attention of the UK and the wider international community.
- The Taliban has clashed with government forces in Afghanistan, which has resulted in civilian deaths and demonstrated how fragile the nascent peace process is. With coalition forces focused internally on responding to coronavirus, the impact of earlier efforts to stabilise the country and reach a political solution is weakened and geopolitical aspirations are undermined.
- There is evidence of “growing coherence amongst the global jihadist movement.” Rather than slowing down under pressures caused by coronavirus, they “appear to be developing and strengthening their connection”, which has been most visible in the Sahel region in Africa, where groups on the ground are beginning to work together.
- Israel’s newly formed coalition government has been reported as planning to annex large sections of the West Bank. This has received widespread criticism from cross-party MPs in the UK, saying this would be in direct contravention of international law and risks significantly undermining efforts to negotiate a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine. Ensuring UK and broader global diplomatic efforts address this is key to avoid setting a dangerous precedent in international relations.
- Last month, the Saudi-led coalition announced a ceasefire in Yemen to support the UN-led peace process and the UN Secretary General’s call for a worldwide truce. But, as hostilities continue, it’s vital that states like the UK make increased diplomatic efforts to salvage this precious opportunity to bring peace in Yemen. The recent announcement by the Southern Transitional Council, a separatist group, declaring self-rule in the south of the country, threatens to renew and exacerbate the conflict on the ground. If we reduce efforts to bring fighting parties back to the negotiating table, we risk seeing the progress made by the UK in recent years unravel.
- The coronavirus veil has also allowed the resurgence of violence in Myanmar. A recent statement by Yanghee Lee, the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights, says the military was inflicting “immense suffering” on communities living in conflict-affected states, and called for increased efforts to “ensure that there is not another systematic failure like in 2017.” The importance of responding to prevent violence from escalating, as well as delivering justice for past violations, is crucial. A distracted international community cannot allow violence to go unaddressed and actions not to have consequences. The UK, as the UN Security Council penholder on Myanmar, has a key role in spearheading this response.
- Against the backdrop of China and Russia’s medical aid diplomacy, Russia continues to stress-test the international rules-based system and the West’s key alliances. Last week, Russian aircraft were spotted flying close to NATO’s airspace, and there are reports of preparations taking place to interfere in the US 2020 election with coronavirus disinformation.
Allowing these developments to continue on their current trajectory risks rolling back vital progress made by the UK in pursuit of political solutions and providing cover for more violence to occur. It risks creating and expanding power vacuums where old threats would be able to regroup and resurface, and new ones given space to form and strengthen. It poses a significant threat to the international rules-based system and key global alliances – both of which are integral to the UK’s national interests and Global Britain ambitions.
Left unchecked these developments together could result in a toxic mix of consequences that will shape and scar the international landscape for years to come. Responding to the coronavirus pandemic is the right thing to do, but the UK and the wider international community must also continue to invest time and resource in preventing conflict, securing political settlements and holding others to account.
If world leaders do not look up, they risk sleepwalking into a world that has changed for the worse.
