Hunger breakthrough: predicting food crises

Information is power

When there is a food crisis, UN agencies and governments won't act unless they have information they believe. Our unique approach paints an accurate picture of how households buy and produce food. It enables governments and aid agencies to predict which families are least likely to survive a disaster - like a flood, a drought or a sudden change in the local market that puts food and income-earning opportunities out of reach of poor people.

Until the 1980s, it was generally thought that famines occurred when too little food had been produced in an area to feed the people living there. It was then shown that in fact there is usually enough food in these situations; the problem is that some people are unable to get enough of it. So, in order to predict food shortages, researchers began to look at data on how different population groups obtain food - through buying it, farming, receiving gifts, working for food rather than money, etc. However, analysis of complex sets of data was difficult and largely unsuccessful. Important information could easily be missed by outside 'experts' who typically had to decipher reams of data.

The Household Economy Approach

In the 1990s, building on 20 years of work, Save the Children developed a creative solution to predicting food shortages, the Household Economy Approach. This is a rigorous but flexible way of collecting and analysing wide ranging information and is based on households in rural areas explaining how they live and make ends meet. Through interviews with government officials, villagers and, for example, local traders, we build up a picture of the local ´household economy' - what the different population groups are, how they obtain food, how they obtain income and how they are likely to behave when food or income is scarce.  Researchers use simple techniques to get this information - for example, using piles of beans to find out from people what proportion of food and income comes from different sources (farming, gifts, fishing, market, etc) and ranking people by wealth.

This local knowledge can then be used to identify and describe the issues facing the main 'wealth groups' and make predictions on how they will cope with specific problems. For example, when rains are delayed, tribal conflicts may limit pastoralist communities' access to water and grazing, making them more likely to have to sell cattle to buy food. With the Household Economy Approach, it is now possible to target effective aid towards the most vulnerable families and children before their circumstances become critical thereby preventing suffering and possibly death.

The Household Economy Approach has achieved large-scale changes for children. It is now used in 23 countries. The approach has been adopted by governments in Africa, (including Malawi, southern Sudan and Lesotho) and in Ethiopia, for example, it is the main instrument used for livelihoods analysis and predicting food shortages. It is also widely used by other international organisations, including, crucially, the US-funded Famine and Early Warning Systems Network.

In 2005/06, 23 million people in Africa - more than half of them children - received emergency aid after assessments using our approach had been carried out.

While the Household Economy Approach (HEA) has mainly been used to predict famine, it is also an invaluable tool for obtaining critical information in a number of other settings. Rapid HEA, for example, is an extremely useful and cost effective version adapted for emergency situations in small areas. When used after the earthquake in Kashmir in 2005, the assessment took only two weeks, and cost under £13,000. From this, we raised nearly £1m, enabling us to get help to more than 15,000 children who desperately needed it. The Household Economy Approach also helps us understand the roles children play to help their families - doing things like fishing, herding animals or caring for younger siblings. This kind of information about family roles helps governments make policies that support households and that also promote children's right to education, play and free time.

The Household Economy Approach: A guide for programme planners and policy-makers

Lenda Lera's story

Lenda Lera, a 35-year-old father of six, is preparing his land. He plans to leave for Arba Minch after he finishes sowing maize and sweet potato. Lenda hopes to find work there as a daily labourer on one of the state farms that grow cotton. While his wife and children look after the fields, he will earn some money to buy food until the next harvest.

HEA assessments show that Lenda, and people in similar situations in his area, face acute food shortages if the sweet potato crop fails, or the maize harvest is delayed. He is susceptible to rises in food prices, and will struggle if there is not enough work on farms in neighbouring areas, or if wages are low. Lenda would benefit from a sales cooperative through which he could sell his produce in larger markets outside his area. Improved seeds and fertiliser would also result in better harvests, helping him to be more self-sufficient, and allowing him to spend less on staple foods.

Adapted from: The Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.

Myth-busting!

Several myths have abounded about rural African livelihoods for many years. One of these common myths is that most rural African families grow the majority of the food that they eat on their farms. HEA has consistently busted this myth from Swaziland to Ethiopia or Sudan by exposing the fact that typically poor families grow only a small proportion - between 20-35 per cent of the food they eat annually. In fact most rural Africans purchase at least 50 per cent of the food they eat from traders, local shops and relatives and they spend much of their time doing casual labour for other local families or receiving money from relatives working elsewhere.

Reference: Alex Rees, Livelihoods Capacity Building Adviser, Save the Children